Information and Communication Technologies. Emerging Global Trends in Convergence Lattakia City, SYRIA October 30th and 31st, 2010
Information and Communication Technologies. Emerging Global Trends in Convergence Lattakia City, SYRIA October 30th and 31st, 2010
Agenda
Emerging Industry Trends The Role of Video in Broadband Application to the industry in Middle East North Africa.
Emerging Industry Trends
Digital Content Mobile Platform IP Network Cable, satellite Platform DSL, FTTH Platform iPhone iPad Netbook Smartphone Desktop,laptop Television Set Mobile TV Users
Emerging industry trends
Rapid expansion in telecommunications networks Full mobile network coverage Multiple access networks (GSM, 3G, WiMax, 4G/LTE, copper/DSL, LLU operators, FTTx, cable modems, satellite) Rapid broadband take-up Upgrading fixed wireline access networks: fiber closer to the home, → integrated IP
Emerging industry trends
Rapid transition to digital television Terrestrial, cable and satellite digital television Digital switchover Digital Content Delivered on Multiple Platforms Same content is delivered on digital television, internet, mobile telephony, mobile television Handset development Netbooks, iPhone, iPad, Smartphones
The emergence of video in broadband
Some estimates on broadband-related growth (CISCO): Web conference is expected to grow 180 times between 2011 and 2014 Ambient video (localised user-generated video streams and applications) Over 90% of IP traffic will be video in 2014 Source: CISCO Video Networking Index
The emergence of video in broadband
Internet video will approach 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic by the end of 2010, (excluding P2P video). The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic by 2014. Advanced Internet video (3D and HD) will increase 23-fold between 2009 and 2014. Video communications traffic will increase 23 times from 2009 to 2014. Real-time video is growing in importance. By 2014, Internet TV will be over 8 percent of consumer Internet traffic, and ambient video will be an additional 5 percent of consumer Internet traffic. Live TV has gained substantial ground in the past few years. Globally, P2P TV is now over 280 petabytes per month. Video-on-demand (VoD) traffic will double every two and a half years through 2014. Consumer IPTV and CATV traffic will grow at a 33 percent CAGR between 2009 and 2014. Source: CISCO Video Networking Index
Implications for the Middle East and North Africa
IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 1 exabyte per month by 2014 at a rate of 45 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 182 million DVDs worth of traffic, or 727 petabytes per month. Web-based video conferencing will grow 180-fold from 2009-2014. Web-based video conferencing is the fastest growing sub-category (183 percent CAGR from 2009-2014) within the business portion of the Cisco VNI Forecast. HD video conferencing will account for over half (57 percent) of business video conferencing traffic in 2014, up from 31 percent in 2009.Over one-half of business videoconferencing traffic will travel over the Internet by 2014. Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 30 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 21 percent. 8 Source: CISCO Video Networking Index
Implications for the Middle East and North Africa
9 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CAGR 2009-2014 By Sub-Segment (PB per Month) File Sharing 4,091 5,075 6,197 7,492 9,125 11,340 23% Internet Video 2,776 4,725 7,718 11,026 14,838 19,468 48% Internet Video to TV 107 263 711 1,502 2,686 4,075 107% Web/Data 1,688 2,273 3,006 3,930 4,933 6,134 29% Video Calling 83 128 199 284 407 599 48% Online Gaming 63 86 120 167 226 307 37% VoIP 122 134 141 144 145 146 4% Source: CISCO Video Networking Index
Customers are taking up broadband
3G/4G should be more open
Customers are taking up broadband
3G/4G should be more open Number of 2G mobile operators Number of 3G/4G operators
Wireless broadband is driving growth
Carlo Maria Rossotto MNA Regional Coordinator GICT Department, Policy Division The World Bank crossotto@worldbank.org
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