Key vulnerabilities to climate change
Key vulnerabilities to climate change
Some regions will be more affected than others:
The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)
Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)
Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)
Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)
Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:
Coral reefs, marine shell organisms
Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions
20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction
Depending on circumstances, some of these impacts could be associated with ‘key vulnerabilities’,
based on a number of criteria in the literature (magnitude, timing, persistence/reversibility, the
potential for adaptation, distributional aspects, likelihood and “importance” of the impacts). WG2 [19.ES, 19.1].
SPM p.13.
The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are
especially vulnerable. WG2 [6.4] p.7
Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. WG1 {3.2}, SPM p.7. In the Polar Regions, the main projected biophysical effects are reductions in thickness and extent of
glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms
including migratory birds, mammals and higher predators. WG2 [15.3, 15.4, 15.2] SPM p.11
In seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase risk of hunger. WG2 [5.4] SPM p.6. In Africa, by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems. WG2 [9.4, 3.4, 8.2, 8.4], SPM p.8.
Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected
to be severely compromised by climate variabilit
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